Mortgage Rates Steady Ahead of High Stakes Inflation Report

The average top tier 30yr fixed rate held exceptionally steady last week after moving just a bit lower over the weekend. By comparison, today's rates are much closer to Friday's latest levels and still very close to the lowest we've seen since October, 2024.  If the two key economic considerations for interest rates are jobs and inflation, the two key economic reports are the jobs report seen earlier this month and the Consumer Price Index which comes out tomorrow morning. It's often repeated that the PCE Price Index is a preferable gauge of inflation, but CPI comes out 2 weeks earlier and thus gets most of the market's attention. Just like last month, market participants are watching to see the extent of tariff-driven inflation in tomorrow's data.  If it contributes to a higher-than-expected result, we'll likely see some upward pressure on rates.   Notably, traders are already expecting an increase over last month, so it won't be "news" to interest rates if inflation is merely higher (the expectation is baked-in to current levels).  Bottom line, volatility potential is higher tomorrow morning due to the inflation data and there's no way to know if it will help or hurt until the market is already reacting.